Hot summer puts pressure on Christmas food supplies

Clubs and hospitality businesses could face higher prices and tighter availability for some Christmas menu ingredients following a difficult growing season, according to purchasing specialist Lynx Purchasing.

The company says the prolonged hot and dry weather has affected a number of crops, with potatoes, carrots and brassicas among those reported to be smaller or showing greater levels of damage and blemishing.

Rachel Dobson, managing director of Lynx Purchasing, said the supply situation had been compounded by competition from retailers and food manufacturers seeking alternative sources where their usual suppliers have been unable to meet demand.

“Many crops were lost altogether, and where they have been harvested, produce such as potatoes, carrots and brassicas are smaller than usual,” she said.

The warning forms part of Lynx Purchasing’s Autumn 2026 Market Forecast, which examines food and drink pricing ahead of the Christmas trading period, drawing on information from its supplier network and official inflation data.

Poultry: Turkey production has been affected by higher feed costs, although suppliers generally expect Christmas prices and availability to be broadly comparable with last year. Avian flu remains a potential factor affecting supply and prices.

Fish and seafood: Higher sea temperatures and lower availability of some species have contributed to increased prices for fresh fish. Salmon is also expected to remain relatively expensive, with demand from international markets adding to pressure on supplies.

Potatoes: The dry summer has affected crop size, quality and availability. Some growers are reported to have lost substantial parts of their crops, while harvested potatoes are generally smaller. Competition from supermarkets and frozen food manufacturers could add further pressure on supplies available to hospitality.

Vegetables: Brassicas including broccoli, cabbage and kale have been affected by heat and dry conditions, while cauliflower supplies were particularly tight towards the end of summer. The timing of Brussels sprout planting could also influence availability later in the year.

Salads: European production of salad crops has also been affected by dry weather and wildfires. Changes in supermarket sourcing could further influence the availability and cost of tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers for hospitality businesses.

Dobson said the weather-related disruption comes against a wider background of food inflation and continuing international pressures affecting food and distribution costs.

She advised hospitality operators to work closely with suppliers and make use of available seasonal produce where possible to help manage potential price and availability pressures over the coming months.

The full Autumn 2026 Market Forecast is available from Lynx Purchasing.